2015年10月，十八届五中全会决定，全面放开二孩政策。

实施了30多年的独生子女政策被终结是为了促进中国的人口增长，帮助应对不断萎缩和老龄化的人口。根据国家统计局的数据显示，在2016年中国实施二胎政策后，出生人数同比增长了130万，达到1786万。

北京大学社会学系教授陆杰华表示，

计划生育政策的放宽确实对一些家庭生二胎的决定产生了直接影响

。2017年，二胎生育占全国生育总量的51.2%，这表明一些家庭在政策放松后立即生育了二胎。

Five years after the birth of her first child, Wendy Wen, a 32-year-old woman from central China's Hunan Province, had her second child earlier this year.

She was born during the years when China adopted the one-child policy. Determined not to let her child re-experience the lonely childhood that she had, she made up her mind to have a second child early in her life. In 2015, her first child was born, and in the same year, China replaced the one-child policy with a new one that allows couples to have two children.

Easing birth restrictions is aimed at boosting the country's stagnating population growth and helping deal with a shrinking and aging population. After China adopted the two-child policy in 2016, the number of births rose by 1.3 million to 17.86 million from the previous year, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

The loosening of the birth control policy does have an immediate effect on some families' decision to have a second child, said Lu Jiehua, professor of Department of Sociology of Peking University. In 2017, second-child births accounted for 51.2 percent of the country's total births, which shows that some women decided to have a second child immediately after the relaxed policy was announced.

但同时，陆教授也表示，

这种被人口学家称为“堆积效应”的现象是相当短暂的

。尽管2017年二胎比一胎多出22%，但从2017年到2019年，中国的出生人数已经连续三年下降。国家统计局数据显示，2019年，我国全年出生人口1465万人，人口出生率为10.48‰，是我国自1061年以来出生率的最低值。

最令人担忧的是，一孩的出生数量急剧下降。在2017年，尽管已育有一个孩子的父母生二孩的数量确实有所上升，但一孩的出生数量仍在下降，导致我国的出生率比前一年下降了3.5%。

恒大首席经济学家任泽平最近发布了一份报告，认为中国应当全面放开并鼓励生育。他在报告中提到，

改变人们的生育行为已经非常困难，因此有必要迅速放松生育政策

。

But the effect, termed "pile-up effect" by demographers, is rather short-lived, according to Lu. Though there were 22 percent more second-child births than first-child births in 2017, births in China have fallen three years in a row, from 2017 to 2019. Last year the figure dropped to 10.5 births per 1,000 people, or the equivalent of 14.6 million babies, the lowest since 1961.

Most worryingly, there was a sharp drop in the number of first-child births. Even in 2017, though the number of children born to parents who already had one child did rise, the number of first-child births dropped, triggering a decline of 3.5 percent in the country's birthrate compared with the previous year.

Ren Zeping, chief economist for Evergrande, wrote in a recent article that China should further relax its birth restrictions, allowing couples to have three children before it is too late.

According to his calculation, the continuous birthrate drop is a result of a fall in the number of women of reproductive age. And since the figure will continue to decline in the future, China's birth rate is expected to experience further falls.

It is already very difficult to change people's reproductive behavior, he wrote, and thus a quick loosening of the policy is necessary.

Children are seen being taken care of by grandparents at a community in Beijing, China, April 3, 2013. /Reuters

对如今的中国来说，维持人口稳定所需的生育率为每名妇女生育2.1个孩子，而中国国家卫生健康委员会将生育率目标定为每名妇女生育1.8个孩子。但多年来，我国的生育率已经下降到1.6左右，这意味着人口在不久的将来可能会开始减少。

长期低于更替率的生育率加速了人口老龄化。到2050年，中国60岁及以上的人口预计将达到4.87亿，占总人口的35%。

陆杰华教授表示，

如果出生率继续下降而预期寿命增加，中国将会出现劳动力短缺，而快速老龄化将阻碍经济增长

。

The fertility rate required to keep population stable is 2.1 children per woman, and in China, the National Health Commission set the goal of fertility rate to 1.8 children per woman. But for years, the fertility rate has fallen to somewhere around 1.6, according to Lu, which means the population could start to shrink in the near future.

The prolonged period of below-replacement fertility is contributing to the acceleration of population aging. By 2050, the number of people aged 60 or older in China is forecast to reach 487 million, or 35 percent of the population.

If birthrates continue to fall while life expectancy increases, China will ran short of labor force and its rapid aging will stymie its economic growth, said Lu.

A child walks on a swinging bridge at a kindergarten in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, December 3, 2012. /Reuters

尽管政策有所改变，但由于抚养孩子的成本太高，中国许多年轻夫妇在生育这件事上多有顾虑。

Despite the policy changes, many young couples in China are reluctant to have children because of the high cost of raising a child.

Annie Hao, who recently gave birth to her son and is considering having a second child, said the rising cost of medical expenses and education, is standing between her and a second child.

Determined to offer her child the excess to the best educational resources, she is planning on sending her son to a private kindergarten which requires a yearly tuition of around 100,000 yuan. Hiring a nanny, extracurricular activities, and medical insurance all require extra pay, and the total cost can reach as high as 200,000 yuan per year, per child.

"The problem is not whether women will have their second child, but if they will have a child at all," she said.

Wen, who works at a tech company in Beijing, feels differently. Though she has a decent paycheck, she never thought of sending her children to expensive private schools or private hospitals.

"You do what you can pay for," she said. "There is no need to live beyond your means."

A pregnant woman lies in bed as her daughter tries to find out what is taking place in mother's belly in Hefei, east China's Anhui Province. /Reuters

中国各省市陆续提出了一系列促进生育的政策。在中国东北，人口下降严重破坏了城市的经济潜力，辽宁省地方政府宣布将延长60天的产假，并为有两个孩子的家庭提供教育和医疗补贴。

从国家层面来看，从2019年开始，作为父母的中国夫妻在子女教育支出上可以享受个人所得税专项附加扣除。

但是，通过经济上的补偿来提高年轻女性生育意愿的政策似乎收效甚微。

陆教授称，（鼓励生育）需要综合的政策办法，创造一个有利于生育的环境。他提出了一系列措施建议，例如延长产假等，其中最重要的是，

要解决职场中的性别歧视问题，使生育不会被认为是就业的障碍

。

Across China, provinces have scrambled to propose a series of policies to boost childbirth. In northeast China where population decline has seriously undermined cities' economic potential, local authorities in Liaoning announced that it would extend an additional 60 days of maternal leave and provide educational and medical subsidies for families with two children.

On a national level, starting from 2019, couples can get tax relief on spending related to their children's education.

But the policies to win over young women through financial stimulus seem to end with less satisfactory effect. "It is about creating a conducive environment to child-bearing, through a combination of policy approaches," Lu noted. He suggested measures such as extending maternal leave, and most important of all, dealing with gender discrimination in workplace and recruitment so that child-bearing would not be considered a hindrance to employment.

Wen, who is now back to her office after having her second child, is shifting the focus of her life back to work and career.

"At different stages of life, I may want different things, and I want an environment that respects that," she said.

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